Event

In East Asia today, continental and maritime alliances face each other, reviving a pattern from the 1950s. The balance of power is changing rapidly in the region, primarily reflecting the rise of China. What is the impact on alignments in East Asia? Traditional balance-of-power realism, power transition models, and strategic triangle theories provide conflicting answers. A synthetic model better captures the dynamics of alliance shifts in East Asia. Rapprochement across the Taiwan Straits since Ma Ying-jeou became president provides a principal example of the changing regional dynamics. What is the essence of Ma’s policy towards mainland China? What direction will it take if power continues to shift in China’s favor? Is Taipei pursuing hedging, pivot-playing, or bandwagoning?  Is Taiwan’s strategy sustainable?

* Sponsored by CEAS Issues in Contemporary East Asia Colloquium Series and with Foreign Policy Research Institute